language learning center · C1 · Lesson 2
Calibrating certainty
Distinguish observation, inference, likelihood, and firm conclusion without sounding either vague or absolute.
Understand and learn
Work from a natural example to useful language, one small pattern, a spoken attempt, and a response that is relevant to your life.
Aisha
The figures clearly indicate a change in behaviour, although they do not tell us what caused it.
Aisha separates direct evidence from an unsupported causal claim.
Noah
One plausible explanation is that the new schedule reduced unnecessary journeys.
Noah marks his explanation as possible, not proven.
Aisha
That may well have contributed, but it would be premature to treat it as the sole factor.
Aisha accepts likelihood while limiting the conclusion.
Noah
Agreed. What we can say with some confidence is that the change coincided with the new schedule.
Noah states the strongest conclusion the evidence currently supports.
Notice, try, and speak
Understand a natural example and learn a small set of useful words, phrases, and patterns.
Useful words and phrases
These items were selected by the lesson curriculum for practical use—not extracted as an every-word list.
The evidence clearly indicates that…
State a conclusion directly supported by evidence.
The evidence clearly indicates that…
One plausible explanation is…
Offer a credible but unproven account.
One plausible explanation is that the new schedule reduced unnecessary journeys.
That may well have contributed,…
Acknowledge a likely influence without overstating it.
That may well have contributed, but it would be premature to treat it as the sole factor.
It would be premature to conclude that…
Delay a conclusion that exceeds the evidence.
That may well have contributed, but it would be premature to treat it as the sole factor.
What we can say with some confidence is…
Define the strongest defensible conclusion.
Agreed. What we can say with some confidence is that the change coincided with the new schedule.
Notice, try, and speak
Which conclusion stays within the limits of the evidence?
Make it yours
Discuss a claim in English by naming one observation, one plausible inference, and one conclusion that would still be premature.
Use a real trend or change you have noticed, while being honest about what you do not know.
Use it with someone
Calibrate certainty in English
- 1. The evidence clearly indicates that…
- 2. One plausible explanation is…
- 3. That may well have contributed,…
- 4. It would be premature to conclude that…
- 5. What we can say with some confidence is…